Got it - I have no idea where I picked that up from. My renewal procedure is saved in org-Roam, so I use the same commands each time.
Result of that is:
$ sudo certbot renew --dry-run
Saving debug log to /var/log/letsencrypt/letsencrypt.log
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Processing /etc/letsencrypt/renewal/13qw.duckdns.org.conf
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Account registered.
Simulating renewal of an existing certificate for 13qw.duckdns.org
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Congratulations, all simulated renewals succeeded:
/etc/letsencrypt/live/13qw.duckdns.org/fullchain.pem (success)
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