I can confirm that this does cause issues, I have a Draytek firewall using a Let's Encrypt certificate for IKEV2 VPNs and the moment the certificate renewed on 18/12/2020 all Windows 10 machines stopped connecting to the VPNs. Apple devices were unaffected. Browsing to the firewall management website using HTTPS using Edge did not help but Edge did not complain about the certificate either.
I hadn't found this thread at that point so we eventually ended up installing the certificate on each machine to fix the issue.