Cannot renew/create a new cert when I had no issue previously

Your issue seems similar to mine. The debug-challenges also fails to pause it, but if I loop systemctl reload nginx I'm able to make it provide a renewal response. It looks like my renews fail because certbot fails to reload nginx but new certs work fine.

What's your platform and setup? I'm on Ubuntu 16.04 LTS with the NGINX and certbot repositories.