Can you attach the dump here? It seems like you only posted the filesizes and filenames, not the actual file.
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capturing "certbot renew --dry-run" with
tcpdump host acme-staging-v02.api.letsencrypt.org -vvv -w dump2.pcap
After seeing the error I interrupted certbot.
All packets were captured, nothing dropped.
dump2.pcap (321.1 KB)
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I ran the following script x 3 times on different days.
#!/bin/sh
for i in $(seq 1 50)
do
certbot renew --cert-name carvaka.de --dry-run
sleep 180
done
Result: In two script runs there were 3 and in one there were 5 of the above-described errors.
The actual certificate renewals work perfectly. The renewal by the systemd timer always happens immediately if the certificate is only valid for 29 days.