On the systemd nginx configuration, the signals sent were not the good one SIGQUIT instead of SIGTERM, that rely in nginx still up while reloading,
There is also caveat with /run/nginx.pid
Anyway there is still problems,
I think the way certbot-nginx is modifying the conf and reloading, isnāt proper with my nginx version : it takes to long or to quick, so the configuration isnāt ready when LE is making his request, hence the renew fails.
I donāt know why is it working so long and now failing almost everytime