do not use --force-renewal
.
It looks like your script is trying to do what certbot already does by itself, check what certificates are expiring and try to renew them.
I can only suggest something is broken there, and if you do not want to restart nginx you should use the webroot plugin instead (you should make all websites share a webroot for the /.well-known/acme-challenge
directory), kinda like:
server {
listen 80;
listen [::]:80;
server_name _;
location /.well-known/acme-challenge/ {
root /var/www/acme;
}
location / {
return 301 https://$host$request_uri;
}
}